Buyers do not support further growth amid increased supply from scrap metal collectors
HMS 1/2 scrap quotations (80:20) in the US fell by $2/t by April 4 compared to March 21, to $353/t FOB East Coast, according to Kallanish. In general, product rose in price by $16/t in March. Therefore, some metallurgical plants have already refused to accept scrap due to declining demand for finished rolled products.
Market participants expect stagnation of scrap prices in April as the most likely scenario. In their opinion, this is due to the fact that the cost of rolled products in the US has reached peak values ??and will not increase further.
«Nobody believes that HRC prices will hold above $900/t as demand is not supporting them. This, coupled with increased scrap supply amid milder weather conditions, is putting pressure on scrap prices,» one of the suppliers told Kallanish.
Traders attribute weak demand for raw materials from Turkish importers to the tense political situation in Turkey. According to them, Turkish steel mills are refusing to make deals, waiting for more certainty.
US crude steel production for the week ending March 29 increased by 0.1% year-on-year to 1.697 million tonnes, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute. Steelmaking capacity utilization was 76.2%, compared to 74.3% in the previous week and 76.4% in the same week in 2024. From January 1 to March 29, steel production in the United States fell by 1.3% to 20.868 million tons. The capacity utilization rate was 74.5% compared to 75.8% a year earlier.
The increase in utilisation last week can be explained by steelmakers’ calculations on a seasonal increase in demand, primarily for long products. However, overall, there was a decline during the quarter, caused mainly by uncertainty due to the introduction of duties on steel imports to the United States. This factor will continue to affect the American steel market in the second quarter. Accordingly, this will restrain the cost of scrap.
Chinese scrap prices from March 21 to 28 increased by $4/t to $344/t CFR. According to traders, this was due to the lack of supply offers from Japan. In addition, last week, Taiwanese electric steel plants purchased scrap in China, refusing more expensive offers on the West Coast of the United States.
Turkish scrap remained unchanged at $381/t CFR from March 20 to April 1. Turkish mills’ April supply needs have declined, while there are still numerous consignments offered for April. This is putting pressure on prices.
“There is no need to rush to buy scrap as the expected energy price hikes are not yet clear. Scrap is available and prices are falling. I am sure that the mills that have already bought are regretting it today,” a representative of one of the steel mills told Kallanish.
The weakening lira has also affected purchases of imported scrap, which have become more expensive. As of March 21, the rate fell to $/38?, the worst value since June 2023. Amid currency volatility, local steel mills with stockpiles prefer to refrain from new purchases, waiting for the lira to stabilize.
European prices for HMS 1/2 scrap (80:20) fell by $4/t to $351/t FOB Rotterdam from March 21 to April 4. Two sellers confirmed to Kallanish that they are concluding supply contracts at stable prices compared to March.
As reported, the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine will prepare official clarifications for customs regarding the collection of duties on scrap exports to Turkey. It will remain at €180/t after the possible ratification of the free trade agreement with Turkey.
