Pig iron prices in the Black Sea ports fell to their lowest level since August 2020 in early 2025, reaching $330/t as of February 14. A corresponding decline in the Black Sea market has been observed since early December 2024, and it deepened in January, when prices fell to $322-325/ton FOB. This was the result of a number of economic and political factors that affected trade dynamics and demand for pig iron.
One of the main reasons for the decline in pig iron prices is weak demand in major markets such as Turkey and India, where economic activity remains limited. In Turkey, for example, amid falling scrap prices, demand for pig iron has declined, which has led to a reduction in offers from Russian suppliers to $330-340/t CFR. At the same time, many traders note that buyers are only interested in prices, but do not make deals. A similar situation is observed in India, where weak demand for steel products is holding back activity in the pig iron market, which is contributing to an even greater drop in its price.
Another important factor is the political situation, including sanctions that affect the supply of Russian pig iron to the European market. In 2025, the European Union began a new quota period, in which the authorized volume of pig iron supplies from Russia is 700 thousand tons. However, a complete ban on imports of Russian pig iron is planned for 2026, which will boost demand and prices for pig iron from other countries, including Brazil, Ukraine and India.
Among the factors that could potentially change this situation are attempts to reduce export duties for Russian suppliers, which could potentially lead to lower prices. On the other hand, demand for pig iron is expected to grow in the coming months as economic activity in China recovers, which could also have a positive impact on prices.
In addition, the pig iron market will remain under pressure from political and economic factors, such as sanctions, trade restrictions and fluctuations in raw material prices. Overall, the situation on the Black Sea pig iron market will remain volatile in early 2025, and prices may continue to fluctuate depending on the development of the domestic economic situation in major importing countries such as Turkey, India and the EU.
As GMK Center reported earlier, global pig iron production in 2024 decreased by 1.3% compared to 2023 to 1.391 billion tons. The blast furnace method produced 1.265 billion tons, down 1.6% y/y, and direct reduction produced 125.57 million tons (+4.5% y/y).