ING International Bank forecasts that iron ore prices will remain under pressure in 2025. These expectations are formed against the backdrop of low steel demand forecasts, strong supplies and elevated port stocks of raw materials.
ING predicts that iron ore prices will average $90/t in the fourth quarter of this year, $100/t in the first quarter of 2025, and $95/t on average for the next year.
The bank notes that in November this year, iron ore prices fell by more than 20% since the beginning of the year, as China, the largest global consumer of this raw material, is experiencing a downturn in its real estate sector, which accounts for about 40% of steel demand in the country. The support measures announced by the authorities have not yet been able to affect the demand for metals.
Continued weakness in China’s real estate sector remains the main downside risk to iron ore prices.
ING analysts believe that this raw material remains dependent on China’s economic stimulus, and the market is sensitive to the country’s policies. Until it sees signs of sustained recovery and economic growth in China, it is difficult to expect a long-term increase in ore prices.
This year’s stable production of the world’s four leading iron ore companies compared to 2023 has led to lower prices and helped keep China’s port stocks high. As we approach 2025, the major producers are looking to maintain these volumes.
In its December review, Fitch Ratings raised its iron ore price forecast for 2024 to $110/t. Previous expectations were $105/t. As before, the price for this raw material is expected to reach $90/t in 2025 and $85/t in 2026.
