Global coking coal prices started to grow in the first half of April

Australian export prices for premium coking coal increased by $14/t in the first half of the month to $181/t FOB as of April 11, according to Kallanish.

On the one hand, during the review period, there was a decrease in supply due to an accident at the large Appin mine in New South Wales and an emergency shutdown at the Moranbah North mine in Queensland.

On the other hand, Australian traders note the lack of orders from Japanese and Indian steel mills due to higher freight rates. This makes it unprofitable for them to buy coal in Australia at current prices. Thus, the market is close to equilibrium, traders say.

The price of premium Chinese coking coal rose by $5/t in the first half of the month to $181/t EXW as of April 11. According to traders, this coincided with an increase in price offers from coke plants.

Chinese coal mines do not have significant inventories, shipments for pre-orders are carried out as usual.

In January-March, coke production in China increased by 2.4% y/y – to 123.3 million tons, according to the General Statistical Office. At the same time, a 4.1% decline to 41.3 million tons was recorded in March. This means a significant reduction in coke stocks at steel mills, given the 4.6% y/y increase in steel production in March to 92.84 million tons.

At the same time, the upward price trend does not have much potential due to falling prices for finished steel products in China.

As reported, rebar in China fell by $12/t in the period from April 1 to April 11 – to $416/t FOT. Market participants believe that this is a situational factor caused by uncertainty about the future prospects of Chinese steel exports in the context of the trade war with the United States.