Global iron ore prices fell at the end of February

There were fluctuations in the iron ore market in February, with prices reaching their highest level since July 2024 by mid-month, but the trend was not long-lasting, with May futures on the Dalian Exchange falling to $109.72/t as of February 28 and March futures on the Singapore Exchange – to $103.65/t. Despite this, prices still remain 3-3.2% higher compared to the end of 2024.

The beginning of February was characterized by predominantly stable iron ore prices, with minor fluctuations. This was caused by concerns about trade restrictions and weak demand for steel in China.

The situation escalated after US President Donald Trump announced new 25% duties on steel and aluminum, which led to a wave of protectionist measures around the world. Vietnam imposed temporary anti-dumping duties on Chinese steel, and South Korea temporarily imposed duties of up to 38% on Chinese rolled steel. The EU is also considering restrictions on steel imports from China, which puts additional pressure on the industry.

These actions have put Chinese steelmakers in a difficult situation: external demand has declined, and the domestic market remains unstable. This affected pricing trends, as lower demand from Chinese steelmakers limited the rise in ore prices, despite some attempts to recover in the second half of the month.

In particular, there were some positive signals in mid-February. Steel production in China reached a seven-month high of 2.15 million tons per day, indicating a certain recovery in the sector. In addition, the stocks of imported iron ore in Chinese ports were declining.

Another factor that supported prices was the decline in global iron ore supplies. Poor weather conditions in Australia temporarily affected exports of raw materials, leading to a short-term reduction in supply on the market. However, increased exports from Brazil and Australia in the second half of the month partially offset this deficit.

Despite the current pressure, the situation may improve in March. The main support factor may be the start of the spring construction season in China, which usually stimulates demand for steel and, consequently, for iron ore. In addition, the Chinese government may announce new economic incentives at the annual parliamentary meeting, which begins on March 5.

However, there remains a risk of further escalation of trade disputes, which may restrain market growth. If the US implements new trade restrictions and other countries continue to impose duties on Chinese steel, this could lead to a prolonged period of instability.

Overall, the situation on the iron ore market in February 2025 was characterized by high volatility. Although demand in China showed signs of stabilization, trade restrictions and increased ore supplies put pressure on prices. In March, the market will be focused on the Chinese government’s policies and possible measures to support the economy.