Global rebar prices have increased in most regions since the beginning of the year

At the beginning of 2025, the global rebar market is in a state of instability. Most regions are experiencing price growth, while Turkey and Northern Europe are experiencing a slight decline. Market dynamics are driven by seasonal factors, fluctuations in demand and changes in the cost of raw materials.

Rebar prices in Turkey have decreased by 0.4% – to $560/tonne FOB since the beginning of 2025. At the same time, in January, offers fluctuated between $552.5 and $557.5/t, but increased in early February.

During the period, the Turkish rebar market experienced fluctuations caused by a combination of internal and external factors. The main drivers of price movements were changes in demand, the situation on the scrap market and competitive pressure from other steel producers.

At the beginning of the year, the market experienced a seasonal decline in activity due to the New Year holidays, which in turn limited trade volumes. Turkish producers were forced to offer discounts to boost sales as buyers refrained from making large purchases. At the same time, scrap prices continued to fall, putting additional pressure on rebar prices. Despite weak demand, Turkish producers were reluctant to cut prices below $560/tonne FOB, expecting market conditions to improve.

In the second half of January, the situation changed. Kardemir adjusted domestic prices several times, which affected the overall market dynamics. Domestic demand remained volatile, while export sales faced competition from North Africa and Brazil. Turkish producers struggled to maintain prices, especially after the rise in scrap prices in late January.

However, despite the price increase, demand for Turkish rebar remained limited. Buyers in the EU, the Balkans and the Middle East were cautious in their purchases, which restrained further market growth. The absence of significant sales to Syria and weak activity in North Africa further limited the potential for price growth.

It is expected that the market will remain under pressure from weak demand in the coming weeks, although the situation may change if the upward trend in scrap prices continues. Turkish producers will have to balance between maintaining competitiveness and protecting their own margins, which makes expectations moderately neutral with a possible short-term price increase if export demand improves.

Since the beginning of the year, the European market has seen a mixed trend. In Italy, rebar prices as of 13 February stood at €592.5/tonne ex-works, up 3% compared to 27 December 2024. In Northern Europe, supply declined slightly over the period, by 0.4% to €560/tonne ex-works.

In January and early February 2025, the European rebar market was volatile due to a number of factors. One of the key influencing factors was manufacturers’ attempts to raise prices for their products. For example, ArcelorMittal announced a €25/tonne increase in prices for long products, explaining it by rising energy costs. At the same time, German mills faced difficulties in implementing their pricing initiatives as the market remained weak and buyers were cautious about new deals.

In Italy, the situation was similar: producers raised prices several times in January, but due to low demand, deals were concluded at lower prices than expected. The market was reluctant to accept the new price levels. By early February, prices had stabilised, although some producers continued to insist on further increases.

In addition to weak demand, the market felt the impact of production cuts. In particular, the partial shutdown of Riva’s Hennigsdorf plant and the introduction of short working weeks may have partially helped to stabilise prices. An additional factor supporting demand was infrastructure projects funded by the European Union, which, although not dramatically, helped to maintain activity in the construction sector.

The market is expected to remain volatile in the near term. High energy costs and raw material prices may stimulate new attempts at price increases, but weak demand and buyer caution will limit their effectiveness. In the short term, rebar prices are likely to fluctuate around current levels, with any significant changes depending on the overall economic situation in Europe.

On the US Midwest (ex-works) market, rebar prices increased by 4.2% YTD – to $745 per short tonne.

During the period, the US market underwent several important changes that affected price dynamics and market sentiment. One of the key factors was the situation on the scrap market. In January, prices remained stable, but in February, they rose significantly by $40-50/t, pushing rebar prices up. This growth was driven by low stocks of raw materials at the plants, deteriorating weather conditions and trade restrictions affecting imports.

Another important driver was the increase in prices by producers. First, Nucor and Gerdau Long Steel North America announced a $30/t increase in January, followed by another $40/t increase in February. Market participants had mixed reactions: some buyers expected the increased prices to gradually take hold, while others doubted the sustainability of the trend due to accumulated stocks.

Political decisions had an additional impact on the market. The introduction of a 25% tariff on imported steel by the Donald Trump administration created uncertainty about future supplies from Mexico and Canada. This led to a surge in domestic demand and a temporary slowdown in import deals due to the need to revise suppliers’ pricing strategies.

In general, the US rebar market is showing an upward trend, although the sustainability of this trend will depend on further dynamics of scrap prices, import tariff policy and the pace of infrastructure projects. Further price increases are likely in the coming months, but they will depend on real demand for products and the level of competition among domestic producers.

China’s rebar market showed fluctuations during the period, driven by seasonal factors, inventory dynamics and economic expectations. Prices increased by 0.7% to $450/t FOT, but the market remained volatile.

In early January, demand weakened due to winter construction breaks, which led to an increase in inventories. High prices for winter storage also restrained buyer activity. At the same time, production was hampered by blast furnace maintenance and electric arc furnace shutdowns starting on 10 January.

The middle of the month was marked by a rise in the futures market amid statements by the People’s Bank of China to support investment. However, actual demand remained weak, and rebar inventories rose by another 13% ahead of the holiday weekend.

After the Chinese New Year, prices rose slightly due to improved sentiment, but demand recovered slowly. Construction companies only gradually returned to work, and some manufacturers postponed the launch of electric arc furnaces until March.

Further market development will depend on the pace of construction recovery and possible reforms in the steel industry. Expected production constraints may reduce oversupply and support price stabilisation, while the government’s economic policy will determine the longer-term outlook.

Courtesy: https://gmk.center/